As sample sizes expand, early-season high-leverage results and trends are still stabilizing. Slow starts get more scrutinized and create a higher volume of player movement. It’s difficult to remain patient with relievers, but it’s warranted given the chaotic nature of the position. Circ*mstances should dictate how one proceeds based on situations and usage patterns.
However, recognizing how a manager prefers handling the high-leverage innings can create a competitive advantage. With this in mind, here’s my high-leverage pathway identifiers — each team will receive one of the following labels, though these can change quickly.
- Mostly Linear: A more traditional approach, with a manager preferring one reliever in the seventh inning, another in the eighth, and a closer (when rested) in the ninth. There are shades of gray. For instance, if the Cardinals face a team with their best pocket of hitters lining up for the eighth inning, Ryan Helsley may be called upon, since it represents the highest-leveraged moment in the contest.
- Primary Save Share: The team prefers one reliever as the primary option for saves, but he may also be used in match-up-based situations, whether dictated by batter handedness or batting order pockets in the late innings, which provides more than one reliever save chances each series or week throughout the season.
- Shared Saves: Usually two relievers split save opportunities, sometimes based on handedness or rest or recent usage patterns. While these situations usually rely on a primary and ancillary option, others can get into the mix. One reliever may eventually emerge, so this can be fluid.
AL High-Leverage Pathways
AL Notes of Interest
- Kansas City Royals: As promised, the leverage pathway has been adjusted for the Royals, reflecting James McArthur emerging as the primary save share. He’s recorded three of the team’s past four saves.
- Minnesota Twins: Although the team is off to a sluggish start, there’s good news regarding its closer. Jhoan Durán came through his most recent throwing session “feeling great” and could be trending toward a minor league rehab assignment soon.
- Oakland Athletics: Removed the shared saves label, but it may remain a primary save share with the A’s being cautious about using Mason Miller on consecutive days. However, he’s converted his first four save chances while routinely hitting triple digits with his four-seam fastball.
- Seattle Mariners: Despite preseason reports suggesting the team would deploy Andrés Muñoz more like a traditional closer, with Matt Brash and Gregory Santos on the injured list, he’s been the HLR (highest-leveraged reliever), capping his value in saves-only formats.
- Texas Rangers: Our first displacement of a preseason closer from his spot in the hierarchy occurred in the ever-volatile Texas bullpen. Kirby Yates has emerged as the primary save share, converting his first save and collecting a win in his past two appearances.
- Toronto Blue Jays: Jordan Romano and Erik Swanson returned from the injured list, which should stabilize this leverage ladder. However, courtesy of a strong start, Yimi García remains next in line, and if Swanson struggles, Chad Green will take the stealth spot.
NL High-Leverage Pathways
NL Notes of Interest
- Colorado Rockies: There’s still no clarity in this bullpen, and given its current climate, it may be best to mine ancillary saves by relievers on better teams.
- Milwaukee Brewers: Just when it looked like Abner Uribe emerged as the primary save share, he appeared in the fourth inning during a game against San Diego. Joel Payamps secured the team’s most recent save, but Trevor Megill returns from his IL stint this weekend, putting this back into a match-up-based leverage situation. Can one of these relievers emerge with the lead role? Stay tuned.
- Philadelphia Phillies: With the “floating closer” concept in full effect, fantasy managers will want to monitor what type of leverage role Orion Kerkering can forge over the next two weeks.
Relievers on the Rise
1. Mason Miller (OAK): One can focus on his team, or the fact he may not appear on consecutive days, protecting his high-octane arm. However, even his critics cannot refute the pure stuff displayed by Miller in save situations. He’s converted a save in each of his past four outings. Through his six appearances in April, he’s recorded 16 strikeouts against three walks (43.3 K-BB percentage) with a 21.8 swinging strike percentage and a 66.9 strike percentage.
Advertisem*nt
2. Ryan Helsley (STL): Injury issues from last year depressed his price point in preseason drafts, but he’s tied for the major league lead in saves (7), with his velocity intact. He’s also produced a 20 percent swinging strike rate while producing 12 strikeouts versus one walk over 10 innings this season.
3. Hunter Gaddis (CLE): Transitioning well into a relief role, he’s recorded three holds and hasn’t been scored upon in his first 8.2 innings, delivering a 12:2 K:BB (31.2 K-BB percentage) and a 0.69 WHIP. He’s generating a 23.5 swinging strike percentage with his slider, and moving into a primary set-up role for Emmanuel Clase in the seventh or eighth inning, which enhances his value in SOLDS, or formats with holds.
4. Fernando Cruz (CIN): He hasn’t allowed a run in his past three appearances and posted multiple strikeouts over his past four games. He owns a 15:4 K:BB with a robust 45.5 percent swinging strike rate with his split-fingered fastball this season. If anything happens with Alexis Díaz, Cruz could be in line for save chances. For now, target the strikeout upside in leagues with SOLDS or holds as a category.
5. Reed Garrett (NYM): Given the nature of the sample size, it’s tough trusting this sort of breakout. However, one cannot ignore it either. He’s leaned into his slider and it’s produced a 23.3 swinging strike percentage. His split-fingered fastball has generated a 38.5 percent swinging strike rate, fueling his 17 strikeouts versus three walks, along with a 0.81 WHIP, through his first 8.2 innings.
Closer Concerns
1. Pete Fairbanks (TBR): He’s allowed at least a run in five of his eight appearances this season while producing 10 strikeouts against eight walks through his first 36 batters faced. There is no issue with his velocity, but he’s trending in the wrong direction in strikeout percentage, walk rate, contact allowed, and swinging strike percentage:
2. Abner Uribe (MIL): After securing a save in his first three outings this season, he has struggled with his command and contact in recent contests. Over his past five games, he’s given up 11 hits and three walks (2.46 WHIP) while recording six strikeouts over 5.2 innings. His .550 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) in this sample will not continue, but he must reduce his contact and walk rates during high-leverage events for sustained success.
Advertisem*nt
3. Josh Hader (HOU): For once, this concern lies more in the usage pattern rather than the results. He’s already appeared in 10 games this season, but only four are considered high-leverage events by Baseball Reference, with five being in low-leverage situations. Managing a bullpen represents one of the toughest jobs for a new manager, but Hader’s early struggles may be tethered with when and how he’s being deployed. Focus on the underlying data which aligns closely with last year’s results — he deserves better than one save and only two chances this season.
Saves Stash List
- Jason Adam (TBR)
- Trevor Megill (MIL)
- Steven Wilson (CWS)
- Hector Neris (CHC)
- Orion Kerkering (PHI)
- Fernando Cruz (CIN)
- A.J. Puk (MIA)
Ancillary Saves Relievers of Interest
- Ryne Stanek (SEA)
- Daniel Hudson (LAD)
- Andrew Chafin (DET)
- Justin Slaten (BOS)
- Lucas Erceg (OAK)
- Yimi García (TOR)
High Leverage Ladders
Tiered Rankings for Saves and SOLDS
Statistical Credits:Fangraphs.com; Baseball-Reference.com; BaseballSavant.com; BrooksBaseball.net
For daily coverage of bullpens, check out my work at Reliever Recon and Closer Monkey
(Top photo of Mason Miller: Raymond Carlin III-USA TODAY Sports)
